By Favoredjane
WASHINGTON, D.C., Is the U.S. economy simply feeling the chill of tariff tensions or slipping into something deeper? Friday’s jobs report could provide a crucial answer.
The Labor Department is set to release April’s nonfarm payroll data, and expectations are guarded. Economists forecast a gain of just 133,000 jobs, a sharp drop from March’s 228,000, and below the already modest average of 152,000 for the year’s first quarter. Still, that figure could be enough to keep the unemployment rate near 4.2%.
But markets are on edge. A significantly weaker report could compound worries already stirred by softening economic indicators and growing concern over President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
“If it’s around 150,000 give or take, I think all will be forgiven,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “We’ll end the week feeling OK, not great, but OK. Things aren’t falling apart.”
The real danger, Zandi warns, is if job growth dips below 100,000. That would likely intensify market anxiety and lead analysts to downgrade their economic outlooks. “If the number 100,000 or anything south of that, then I think I’d watch out,” he added. “That could be a tough day in the markets.”
Beyond the headline number, Wall Street will be closely watching wage growth and participation rates for signs of deeper shifts. With tariffs clouding the business climate and growth showing signs of fatigue, Friday’s report could either calm nerves or confirm that the slowdown has staying power.
